Is the enemy of my enemy my friend?
For some reason, a bunch of folks are talking about a “theory” that Littlefinger is trying to turn the North against Jon Snow in order to swoop in at the end of the “War Of The Two Mad Queens” behind the combined might of the Vale and The North.
I put “theory” in quotes because Littlefinger is OBVIOUSLY trying to turn the armies and lords of the North against Jon and towards Sansa.
What else could he possibly do in the face of losing every bit of influence he has been trying to build since he arguably started the War of the Five Kings what seems like almost a billion years ago.
Oh, and if you haven’t read this weeks recap yet, here is the link:
Anyway, I agree that both Littlefinger and Sansa have aspirations for an Iron future, but what about the rest of the theory?
Can Littlefinger Turn The North Against Jon?
Yes and No.
The North is a proud place with many traditions. Sure, Arya saw many folks talking to Sansa and Littlefinger about betraying Jon, and I would never put anything past Benioff and Weiss, but it just doesn’t seem likely that a wide swath of Northern lords would betray recently promised vows and turn on their King again.
The North has never been much about cowardice and treason is seen as even worse in the North than it is almost anywhere else (which is why Sansa was right to call out Jon for letting the Umbers and Karstarks off without punishment for turning traitor and also for turning Rickon over to Ramsay Bolton last season).
This whole strategy seems as likely to backfire as it is to work. If Sansa takes power, deposing her own half-brother, only to appear weak or even cowardly, hers would be a short rein as Queen of the North.
It is certainly possible that elements of the new Northern alliance will align with Sansa-finger (if that finally becomes an official icky thing) but it seems unlikely they would do so to sit out a fight (even a fight against supernatural undead zombies). There is also a better than even chance that Lyanna Mormont will show up just in time to shame them into staying with Jon to fight zombies.
Would Sitting Out Work for Sansa-Finger?
Sure, if Cersei and Daenerys destroy each others armies, the dragons die, and the White Walkers don’t get past the wall Sansa-Finger could pick up the pieces (but that is a lot of pre-requisites).
Truth is, the Knights of Vale aren’t that numerous and Jon’s forces weren’t sufficient to win the war in the North. They are probably safe from attack and might be able to fight off an attack (assuming no Dragons were involved) but taking the attack against Cersei or Daenerys? Man, for that to happen, some catastrophic events would have to go down.
I am still pretty surprised that Daenerys went along with Tyrion’s bad plan because she had to know she could have marched straight to King’s landing and finished Cersei off before she had a chance to retrench and rebuild. In other words, the only reason the war isn’t over is because Tyrion just talked Daenerys out of pressing her advantage and ending the war.
All I am saying is that as of right now, Cersei can’t do much damage to Daenerys. But for Tyrion’s plan, she could turn her forces North and take on White Walkers who would clearly cause much more mischief (plus who knows how the Dothraki would deal with the cold). So, the forces of the North would ignore the battles against the White Walkers and then, assuming Daenerys wins, she would turn on the troops that just saved them from the White Walkers?
Is this Littlefinger’s plan? it could be.
Does it make much sense? Not Really.
Would Sansa Play Along?
Probably.
Arya called out her ambitions directly last week and Sansa didn’t even blink or try to deny her desire to one day sit on the Iron Throne.
The wildcards here are Arya, Jon, Lyanna, and Sansa’s conscience.
I absolutely do not think that Arya will play along with deposing Jon (even it could mean marking Cersei off her list). Arya and Jon were really close and Jon was one of the only people who encouraged her desire to be a fighter.
Yes, I get that Littlefinger is hip-deep in his plan to discredit Arya, but I will be shocked if it works out the way Littlefinger is hoping it will.
Another problem for Littlefinger is that Sansa doesn’t trust him as far as she can throw him. That certainly doesn’t mean she is beyond cynically entering into a mutually beneficial relationship (with both parties fully distrustful of the other) to satisfy their mutual ambitions.
At the same time, the sitting out plan seems pretty non-strategic to me and Sansa is not that girl hoping to be made a princess through marriage like she was a kid. Either Littlefinger’s plan is more ambitious or Sansa would probably just use Littlefinger’s plan as a bridge to power (and then get rid of Baelish).
At the end of the day, Littlefinger does want Sansa to be Queen of the North and Sansa wants to be Queen of the North, so I will certainly not be surprised if Sansa-Finger happens. But, I will be surprised if the plan is sitting on the sidelines and letting the rest of the world fight it out.
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