I do agree that he should not, nor should have ever been, a military commander but he was a much better schemer before. I mean how hard is it to start from where a plan could go wrong (not from where it could go right), that is just strategy 101.

He should at least understand the politics of Cersei for god’s sakes. Does anything about that sound like something Cersei would really genuinely go for?

The only thing I would push back a tiny bit on is the Blackwater, where he was often undermined by everyone around him. Most of the rest I agree with. Still, he has never been THIS stupid, no?